President Trump’s executive order to revoke federal funding for investments in manufacturing clean vehicle technologies portends a bleak future for the jobs and communities building big trucks and buses in the United States, our new report co-authored with the BlueGreen Alliance details.
Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are a backbone of U.S. economic life. Transitioning these vehicles from internal combustion engines (ICE) to low- and no-emission technologies is a critical step for eliminating greenhouse gas and other toxic emissions from the transportation economy. At the same time, this transition could have serious implications for the ICE vehicle manufacturing industry and auto workers—as well as the steel and aluminum industries that contribute so much to vehicle manufacturing—that have long been hammered by outsourcing and offshoring, union-busting, and intensifying international competition.
If done right, the transition to manufacturing clean trucks and buses presents a rare opportunity to reverse these trends and revitalize long-beleaguered industries with expanding investment, creation of good jobs, and broadly rising incomes in the United States. If done wrong, the transition risks exacerbating the current trends that see companies moving production offshore or to U.S. states embracing anti-worker policies, threatening the security of the good jobs that remain.
Our report models potential economic futures for U.S. truck and bus manufacturing supply chains under a variety of policy scenarios through 2032. The results indicate three pillars are necessary to secure good jobs for legacy auto workers and new entrants to the workforce, and to ensure a robust future for truck and bus manufacturing in the United States. To win good jobs manufacturing U.S. trucks and buses, policymakers must:
- Maintain a strong public commitment to low- and no-emission vehicle transition, including supply-side and demand-side measures to overcome endemic market failures in the development and deployment of new clean vehicle technologies.
- Increase the domestic market share and domestic content share for clean vehicle components in made-in-America trucks and buses by tackling the problems of bad trade policies and strongly tying financial incentives to domestic content requirements.
- Condition financial incentives for companies on creating high-quality jobs; institute penalties and clawbacks for companies that fail to meet their commitments to U.S. investments and good jobs; and prohibit participation in these programs for companies that can’t show “clean hands” with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the Internal Revenue Service, and other relevant regulatory bodies.
On all three counts, President Trump is flooring it in the wrong direction. Reversing federal funding for clean vehicle manufacturers and consumers will eliminate the first pillar of a clean vehicle transition that promotes good jobs, stranding more than $145 billion in new U.S. manufacturing investments and accelerating the decline in market share for domestic truck and parts manufacturing.
The demand for clean trucks will still be there. Although Trump has nixed clean vehicle targets for future new sales, 35 other countries—along with U.S. states, cities, and a range of private-sector manufacturers, fleet owners and operators, utility and infrastructure providers, and capital investors—have pledged to reach 100% clean truck and bus sales by 2040. But without a sufficient U.S. manufacturing base and workforce, that new demand will be met by foreign suppliers. Legacy ICE producers will be faced with dwindling market share and deteriorating production economies squeezing profits.
Figure A illustrates the potential harm of repealing the clean vehicle incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Pulling supply- and demand-side supports from the industry would result in nearly half a million fewer clean energy trucks and buses produced domestically through 2032, relative to the baseline scenario. This would cost more than 35,000 job-years (a quantity requiring one person’s work over one year) in truck assembly and parts manufacturing of ICE and clean vehicles and shrink the industry by nearly $16 billion. Conversely, we find that continuing with federal support for clean vehicles and tightening content rules to increase domestic market share would result in an additional 112,000 trucks and buses made in the United States, and an additional 171,000 job-years.
Retreating from strong industrial policy will ravage U.S. truck and bus manufacturing industries: Change in U.S. medium- and heavy-duty truck and bus production from baseline scenario, units, 2024–2032
| Total trucks and buses | |
|---|---|
| 50% clean energy vehicles + 10% market share | 111,953 |
| Policy retreat | -476,575 |
Source: EPI analysis of S&P Global (2024), IMPLAN (2024), and FRED Motor Vehicle Assemblies: Heavy and Medium Truck Assemblies series and FRED Manufacturers’ Value of Shipments: Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturing series data.
Trump’s track record on the other two pillars is similarly unpromising. Although he made trade competition a signature policy campaign of his first term, the situation facing medium- and heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing got worse. Trump renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but his United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) preserved the fundamental flaws that empower multinational producers to threaten and actually relocate work to lower-wage and more readily exploitable places like Mexico. Trump left gaping loopholes in USMCA’s “Rules of Origin,” allowing foreign content to enter duty-free into U.S. markets without offering the same market-opening to U.S. producers—a loophole ripe for exploitation by heavily subsidized Chinese producers. And when it came to Chinese producers, Trump’s Phase 1 trade deal failed to meaningfully address any U.S. structural economic concerns. Will Trump’s second term be any different? So far, his tariff bluster seems to be aimed more at leveraging tariffs for international bargaining over non-economic issues rather than protecting good jobs from unfair trading practices.
Since USMCA was signed into law, wages for U.S. motor vehicle production workers have fallen more than 7% after inflation. Meanwhile, U.S. imports from Mexico of medium- and heavy-duty trucks increased 500% and imports of motor vehicle parts increased 150%. After growing steadily since July 2009, overall employment in motor vehicles and parts fell in the first Trump administration while also shifting employment to states with lower wages and worker protections. Trump led relentless attacks on workers’ rights during his first administration, and when he had an opportunity to support striking autoworkers in 2023, he criticized them and spoke at a non-union factory. Now, the president is working closely with union-buster and Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk, who could shape Trump’s policies to squeeze his competitors out of the marketplace.
Will Trump realize he is taking the wrong turn for the future of good jobs building trucks in the United States? Workers in truck manufacturing communities and the rest of the world awaiting critical climate solutions like clean vehicles will be holding our breath.
Sign up for EPI’s newsletter so you never miss our research and insights on ways to make the economy work better for everyone.
