Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey could signal warning signs ahead: Lower hires rate more concerning with layoffs on the horizon

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January. Read the full thread here.

Another month another important Bureau of Labor Statistics #NumbersDay report on Job Openings and Labor Turnover. Note: these data are for January, so there is nothing here that reflects the current trouble brewing in the economy. Most indicators are either unchanged or little changed from December.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM

Over the last several months, labor market churn has come down. Workers are sitting tight—holding on to their jobs—and hires have softened. This is less concerning if layoffs remain low. If layoffs pick up as expected in and out of the public sector, these lower hires rates will be concerning.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM

Job openings have trended back into the normal range for well over two years now. Job openings clearly appear in line with pre-pandemic trends, along the trend line with the growing population. #EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 9:40 AM