The “doomsday scenario” for the future of Chicago’s transit system is coming into sharp focus: a $770 million budget deficit threatens thousands of jobs, sweeping service cuts and a crater in the local economy if a financial fix isn’t found by spring.
That is the picture in a report released Friday by the Regional Transportation Authority, which oversees finances for the region’s buses and rail agencies. The report outlines the dire effects that a failure to plug the gap could have on the system and the region. The General Assembly, the authority said, needs to act by the end of the legislative session in May in order to stave off a crisis.
The Chicago Transit Authority is expected to be the first agency in the region to run off the fiscal cliff. At least four of the eight rapid transit lines in the city will likely see services cut back, the report predicts. The expected cuts to bus lines could take the CTA from one of the nation’s largest transit systems to one with fewer bus routes than sprawling Kansas City.
“This isn’t just a transit crisis — it’s a regional emergency,” RTA Executive Director Leanne Redden said in the report. “If the General Assembly does not act this spring, hundreds of thousands of Illinoisans will wake up in 2026 without a way to get to work, school or medical appointments with continued uncertainty in future years about their transit services.”
Chicago’s woes are part of a growing financial crisis that is playing out in urban transit systems across the country. Agencies in the largest cities are currently staring down steep budget deficits as they grapple with the end of pandemic aid from the federal government and also confront President Donald Trump’s threats to withhold funding from major transit infrastructure projects.
The economic losses across the six counties in the Chicago region could be as much as $2.6 billion annually, when factoring in the additional traffic, reduced mobility, and job losses, according to the RTA, which anticipates that some 3,000 transit workers will be laid off.
To avert the looming crisis, officials have previously called for $1.5 billion in additional annual funding from state and local sources. That plan, which includes a proposed 10% fare increase, is designed to stop the cuts and pay for additions to current services.
The RTA anticipates that without any further action, Metra, the city’s commuter rail system, would need to end service for the Electric Blue Island Branch and the bus agency, Pace, would have to axe its weekend service altogether.
“The momentum we’ve built to create a more responsive and equitable transit system—one that supports economic growth and connects people to jobs and opportunity—would come to a halt, setting us back years,” said Pace Executive Director Melinda Metzger.
The RTA projects that ridership across the system would drop by 90 million trips in the first year alone, tanking fare revenue and intensifying funding challenges in the years to come.
“Public transit is an economic necessity. If these cuts happen, Illinois’ entire economy will suffer,” said RTA Board Chairman Kirk Dillard.
Top photo: The Chicago Transit Authority is expected to be the first agency in the region to run off the fiscal cliff.
Copyright 2025 Bloomberg.
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