Federal worker layoffs spike in latest JOLTS report, but it’s just the tip of the iceberg

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February. Read the full thread here.

 

The topline numbers in the latest #NumbersDay report on Job Openings and Labor Turnover for February showed little changed in February, but we can see the fingerprints of recent policy decisions on the federal workforce. The data show 18,000 laid off federal workers in February.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 9:23 AM

The spike in the layoffs rate for federal workers in February 2025 is the steepest uptick since the laying off of census takers in 2020. The decision of this administration to target the federal workforce is having its intended effect. Unfortunately, this is likely only the tip of the iceberg.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 9:31 AM

Because the federal workforce is only a small share of the overall workforce—and one that has fallen precipitously as a share since the 1950s—the federal layoffs are not showing up in the economy-wide layoff rate.
www.epi.org/blog/doge-is…

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM

Overall, the rate of hires, quits, and layoffs were unchanged between January and February. What we are beginning to see in the federal workforce layoffs along with massive spending cuts has yet to hit the data for the private sector. There’s no question it is coming.
#NumbersDay #EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 9:48 AM