March jobs report shows a resilient labor market, but trouble is looming

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 228,000 jobs added in March. Read the full thread here. 

So far the labor market has remained far more resilient than expected given the economic turmoil fostered by recent policy decisions. While there were downward revisions to topline numbers in prior months, job growth came in at 228k for March. Federal jobs losses totaled 15k since Jan.
#NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 4, 2025 at 7:45 AM

In March, jobs gains were strongest in health care and leisure and hospitality. Social assistance, retail services, and transportation and warehousing also noted gains. Federal government employment fell while state and local jobs grew. #NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM

Employment in the federal government fell 4,000 in March after dropping 11,000 in February. More recent federal UI claims data—after the reference period for these data—suggest further cutbacks.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM

NOMINAL wage growth holds steady, down slightly to 3.8% YoY. After falling steadily since its 2022 peak, inflation hovered around 3% for 21 months. As a result, average REAL wages have been rising. This could be the calm before the storm of tariffs and deportations hit the labor market.
#NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 4, 2025 at 8:30 AM

Household survey mostly holding steady for March, but remains a little weaker than Jan. Unemployment up to 4.2% from 4.0% in Jan (up only 0.01pp since Feb). Household employment ticked up, but remains a little softer than Jan. Prime-age EPOP ticked down to 80.4%, down from 80.7% in Jan. #NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) April 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM