Melbourne home prices: Best and worst-performing areas since Anthony Albanese became Prime Minister

Victorian homeowners are better off in just five federal electorates than they were when the Albanese government took power in 2022.

And it could spell bad news for Labor, Greens and Teal candidates when the nation goes to the polls in 2025.

Six of the 10 areas with the best performing home values since the last federal poll are held by Coalition politicians, according to CPA Advisory analysis, modelled with SuburbTrends data.

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By contrast, typical prices in the seat of Goldstein held by Teal independent Zoe Daniel have plunged more than $330,000 – the biggest drop of any federal electorate in the state, and the third worst in the country.

The next poorest performing area was Melbourne, the seat held by Greens leader Adam Bandt — down almost $170,000.

Just one of the 25 electorates with the worst-performing house prices was held by a Coalition MP: Zoe Mckenzie’s seat of Higgins. However, 19 are held by Labor MPs.

Property Investors Council of Australia director Ben Kingsley said with most people linking the federal government with the economy’s performance – and property values the method by which most homeowning voters would use to rate their elected representatives – Victoria’s broad decline in prices was likely to “show up in ballot boxes”.

“We saw what happened with the Trump rebirth: do people feel better off or worse off under the current leadership?” Mr Kingsley said.

A unit at 5 514/228 Abeckett St, Melbourne in the seat of Melbourne sold for $325k in 2021, and recently sold in 2024 for $280k.

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108/15 Vickery St, Bentleigh in the seat of Goldstein did not go up in value in three years, selling for $650k in 2021, and the same price again in 2024.

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“And the wealth effect would be playing into this for households. If the home value has gone down, they would definitely feel worse off.”

He added that the coming election would also test how much people are willing to accept home values falling as a social good while they are paying potentially seven figures in interest to their bank over a 30-year loan.

“At some stage there’s a tipping point of just how much they will accept,” Mr Kingsley said.

“I think you will see that they won’t tolerate it — as long as they are aware of it. And if they aren’t aware in this election cycle, they will be in the next federal electoral cycle.”

The data captures broad home value trends, covering an amalgamation of houses, townhouses and apartments, demonstrating that growth from suburb to suburb and for particular home types can vary within an electorate.

2 Milburn Court, Endeavour Hills sold in 2021 for $1.09m, and sold again in 2024 for $1.28m.

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In Victoria’s best-performing electorate, Bruce — which is held by Labor MP Julian Hill and covers outer eastern Melbourne suburbs like Narre Warren, Doveton and Dandenong North — the $735,000 typical home value has risen by $35,000 (5 per cent) in the past few years.

Area Specialist Rapid Narre Warren real estate agent Khaled Arabzadeh said he routinely heard from buyers concerned about a lack of government action on housing affordability.

“There’s a daily conversation with half a dozen buyers who are complaining and blaming the government for homes being unaffordable,” Mr Arabzadeh said.

“People want to see change, but they feel there are promises and nothing changes.”

Meanwhile in the seat of Goldstein, Buxton director Chris Hassall said there was a two-speed market, with family homes typically selling well, but apartment owners having to be told that values weren’t moving, or were going backwards in response to affordable housing policies — though most owners were ahead thanks to historic growth.

“Some of these policies are against growth, and there’s a sense that the plan is working and creating an opportunity for Australians to buy real estate,” Mr Hassall said.

“But, unfortunately, there are declines in some affordable home prices. And I have had to advise that the growth might not be there for a while (for some homes) when the policy is to create affordable housing.”

58 Mccubbin Drive, Warragul, in the Seat of Nicholls, sold for $630k in 2022, and sold again in 2024 for $610k.

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PropTrack data shows the $2.45m median house price in the Goldstein suburb of Black Rock rose 8.9 per cent in the past year, but the suburb’s $950,000 typical unit value dropped 16.5 per cent.

The Demographics Group co-founder Simon Kuestenmacher said falling home values in Melbourne were most likely caused by the city becoming the nation’s work-from-home capital, taking pressure off traditionally high-demand inner and middle-ring suburb home values.

Mr Kuestenmacher said it was likely politicians who championed housing affordability would attempt to spin it as their success, but that this should be viewed sceptically.

“Melbourne is now very, very different to other cities,” he said.

Property Council of Australia Victorian executive director Cath Evans said research they had commissioned from RedBridge showed 52 per cent of Victorians wanted housing affordability to be a priority for the government.

“It’s clear that housing affordability will be one of the critical key vote moving issues for the whole community,” Ms Evans said.

7 Eagle Ave, Cowes sold for $960k in 2022, and recently sold in 2024 for $1.2m.

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“Whichever party provides a clear vision and policy platform that addresses critical supply challenges and provides structural solutions to the affordability crunch will be rewarded by their constituents.”

Matthew Hughes, investment adviser at property group CPA, said housing affordability would be top of mind for voters.

However, Mr Hughes noted the problem was deeply rooted in the numerous issues affecting the construction industry, which meant not enough homes were getting built at a time of record population growth.

ELECTORATES WITH BIGGEST HOME VALUE CHANGE SINCE ELECTION

Electorate, Current Member (Party): Median home price today — Change since election

Goldstein, Zoe Daniel (Independent): $1,142,500 — -29%

Melbourne, Adam Bandt (Greens) $612,500 — -27%

Flinders, Zoe McKenzie (Liberal): $850,000 — -22%

Higgins, Michelle Ananda-Rajah (Labor): $677,500 — -20%

Gellibrand, Tim Watts (Labor): $785,000 — -19%

Monash, Russell Broadbent (Independent): $595,000 — -17%

Isaacs, Mark Dreyfus (Labor): $965,000 — -17%

Ballarat, Catherine King (Labor): $520,000 — -14%

Macnamara, Josh Burns (Labor): $628,500 — -14%

McEwen, Rob Mitchell (Labor): $700,000 — -14%

*Median price reflects all homes in electorate, including houses, townhouses, units and apartments

Source: CPA Advisory analysis of SuburbTrends data

ELECTORATES WITH SMALLEST HOME VALUE CHANGE SINCE ELECTION

Electorate, Current Member (Party): Median home price today — Change since election

Bruce, Julian Hill (Labor): $735,000 — 5%

Mallee, Anne Webster (Nationals): $400,000 — 4%

Hawke, Sam Rae (Labor): $593,000 — 3%

Gippsland, Darren Chester (Nationals): $450,000 — 2%

Nicholls, Sam Birrell (Nationals): $505,000 — 1%

Hotham, Clare O’Neil (Labor): $890,000 — -1%

La Trobe, Jason Wood (Liberal): $715,000 — -1%

Wannon, Dan Tehan (Liberal): $450,000 — -3%

Casey, Aaron Violi (Liberal): $830,000 — -3%

Lalor, Joanne Ryan (Labor): $626,500 — -3%

*Median price reflects all homes in electorate, including houses, townhouses, units and apartments

Source: CPA Advisory analysis of SuburbTrends data

— additional reporting by Sarah Petty

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