By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient readers, yesterday was the complex maneuvering preparatory to travel. Today is the lurching and jolting of actual travel, hopefully arriving at a full complement of Water Cooler items. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Country Homes Apartments, Jefferson, Texas, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Theories of Trump’s nomination nethodology.
- Treasury rumors continue.
- RFK Big Mac flap.
Look for the Helpers
“Underrated ways to change the world” [Experimental History].
Here is an exemplary scientific paper:
During the author’s childhood, various renowned authorities (his mother, several aunts, and, later, his mother-in-law [personal communication]) informed him that cracking his knuckles would lead to arthritis of the fingers. To test the accuracy of this hypothesis, the following study was undertaken.
For 50 years, the author cracked the knuckles of his left hand at least twice a day, leaving those on the right as a control. Thus, the knuckles on the left were cracked at least 36,500 times, while those on the right cracked rarely and spontaneously. At the end of the 50 years, the hands were compared for the presence of arthritis.
There was no arthritis in either hand, and no apparent differences between the two hands.
People often think they can’t do research because they don’t have a giant magnet or a laser or a closet full of reagents. But they have something the professional scientists don’t have: freedom. The pros can’t do anything that’s too weird, takes too long, or would raise the suspicion of an Institutional Review Board. That kind of stuff has to happen in a basement or a backyard, which is why the “paper’ above is, in fact, a letter to the editor written by a medical doctor on a lark.
* * * My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza)
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
* * * Trump Transition
“Trump’s casting call as he builds out his administration: TV experience preferred” [Associated Press]. ” There’s a common trait that President-elect Donald Trump is clearly prizing as he selects those to serve in his new administration: experience on television. Trump loves that ‘central casting’ look, as he likes to call it…. [He’s] working to set up a more forceful administration in this term, and in his eyes, many of those people happen to intersect with celebrity…. The White House-to-cable news pundit pipeline tends to cut across administrations of both parties, to some extent. President Joe Biden had three MSNBC contributors on his transition team and his former press secretary went to the network after she left the White House. Biden, though, looked to career diplomats, longtime government workers and military leaders for key posts like the Defense Department.” • You could argue, I suppose, that the social capital intrinsic to celebrity gives these appointments a certain autonomy; they can always go back on cable or secure an “Orange Man Bad”-type book deal. Of course, this cuts against the “loyalist” narrative. Readers, what do you think?
* * * “Trump reconsiders Treasury Secretary nomination, may no longer choose pro-crypto” [Binance]. • Imagine breathing a sigh of relief that we’re getting some private equity weasel, and not some crypto bro.
“Elon Musk’s endorsement of a Treasury secretary candidate has reportedly rubbed Trump’s people the wrong way” [Fortune]. “Despite the apparent unease of some Trump staffers with Musk’s actions, there is no evidence that any rift has formed between Musk and Trump. Musk is still spending much of his time at Mar-a-Lago, and traveled with Trump to New York Saturday to attend a UFC fight. Whoever becomes Treasury secretary, Musk is likely to work somewhat closely with them as part of his duties with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). DOGE will work with the White House Office of Management and Budget to implement the recommendations of Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Musk has said previously he believes it is possible to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget, though many have been skeptical of this figure.”
* * * “Sweating RFK Jr. Performs Self-Surgery To Extract Big Mac From Stomach” [The Onion]. • The Dems ginned up a little moral panic about this the other day, but happily I can dispose of it with a link to The Onion: As with so much else.
* * * The Case for Matt Gaetz” [Compact Magazine]. “There are two ways to look at the corruption that is rife in 21st-century American life. One view is that reform demands a saint to reproach the wicked…. The second view is that if we must await an immaculate reformer, reform will never come. So we ought to support even obviously flawed individuals when they take on the necessary work of confronting systemic evils.” This speaks well of him: “This year, Gaetz took James Poulos and a film crew from The Blaze on a tour of congressional offices whose occupants—including Republicans—were violators of Congress’s seldom-enforced rules against insider trading.” And: “Gaetz has been complimentary toward Lina Khan, chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, and the Biden Justice Department’s chief antitrust official, Jonathan Kanter. The New York Post notes that Google, in particular, is likely to be a focus of antitrust attention in a Gaetz Department of Justice, which might move to break up the tech megalith. The same story quotes Gaetz referring to Big Tech companies in 2021 as ‘the internet’s hall monitors’ with a bias against conservatives. Gaetz has described himself as a ‘libertarian populist,’ and that characterization is reflected by his stances on civil liberties and social issues.” •
How the Gaetz Ethics report could still come out if the panel blocks it” [Politico]. “Here’s a breakdown of what could happen if [Ethics Committee] members vote not to release the [Gaetz] report, and other ways the investigative findings could see the light of day…. Someone leaks it to the press: Ethics Committee members and staff don’t take the prospect of a leak lightly, if the panel votes to keep the report under wraps. Part of that is wanting to protect the credibility of the panel, but members also take an oath, pledging: “I will not disclose, to any person or entity outside the Committee on Ethics, any information received in the course of my service with the Committee, except as authorized by the Committee or in accordance with its rules.”… Using the House floor: Some lawmakers are privately theorizing that, should the committee block the release of the report, a lawmaker could go to the House or Senate floor and read it into the congressional record rather than leak it to the media…. Sharing it with senators: Even if the Ethics panel doesn’t want to make the report public, they can vote to share it with the Senate Judiciary Committee ahead of potential confirmation hearings…. Sober warning: Staff-driven leaks have happened before, but typically not in a situation with so much at stake. In addition to losing a job, there are also real concerns of political violence if a staff leaker’s name became public.” • Hmmm.
* * * “What to know about Dr. Mehmet Oz, Trump’s pick to lead Medicare and Medicaid” [Associated Press]. “Oz had a net worth between $100 million and $315 million, according to a federal financial disclosure he filed in 2022, which gives dollar values in ranges but does not provide specific figures.” • Oh.
* * * “Prosecutors request stay in Trump NY case until 2029 as defense plans motion for dismissal ‘once and for all’” [FOX]. “New York prosecutors are requesting a stay until at least 2029 in New York v. Trump, as the president’s defense attorneys prepare to move to dismiss the case entirely. Prosecutors wrote a letter to Judge Juan Merchan on Tuesday, who agreed last week to grant a stay on all deadlines associated with the conviction proceedings against Trump in the final months before he takes office. åMerchan granted the request, which issues a stay on all deadlines, including the Nov. 26 sentencing date, to consider the effect of his election as president. Prosecutors had asked for the pause in proceedings, which they said would allow them to better evaluate the impact of Trump’s new status as president-elect. ‘As a result of the election held on November 5, 2024, Defendant’s inauguration as President will occur on January 20, 2025,’ Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg wrote to Merchan on Tuesday.” And: “Trump’s attorneys have requested that Merchan overturn the guilty verdict, citing the United States Supreme Court’s decision that former presidents have substantial immunity from prosecution for official acts in office. Trump’s legal team argued that certain evidence presented by Bragg and New York prosecutors during the trial should not have been admitted, as they were ‘official acts.’”
2024 Post Mortem
Deploy the Blame Cannons!
* * * “NBC’s Kornacki: Republicans Achieve Historic Realignment, 25-Point Shift Among Lower-Income Voters Since 2012” [RealClearPolitics]. KORNACKI: “Remember, three straight elections Trump’s been the Republican candidate. So pre-Trump voters under 30 were going for the Democrats by 23 points. Folks with incomes under $50,000, 22 points for the Democrats. Folks without college degrees, four points for the Democrats. That’s pre-Trump. What comes out of this election? Look at some of these shifts. The youth vote, that Democratic margin cut more than in half. Voters under $50,000, now a Republican constituency. Voters without a college degree, look at that shift. Now a core Republican constituency. And then we can talk about race, ethnicity. This gets into that diversity I mentioned a minute ago. Check this out. Again, pre-Trump versus now. The Black vote still overwhelmingly Democratic, but that’s a 15-point shift. It used to be 87 points for the Democrats, down to 72. How about this? You’ve heard a lot about it this week. This is what the numbers look like. Hispanic voters were 44 points Democratic before Donald Trump. Now, basically a toss-up constituency. And Asian Americans, a 32-point shift there as well. That’s what’s happened to the Republican Party since Donald Trump became its standard bearer eight years ago. This has been the movement.”
Spook Country
“Someone accessed files said to contain damaging info about Trump AG-nominee Gaetz, lawyer says” [Associated Press]. “An unauthorized person gained access to a file containing confidential testimony from women who have made allegations about former Rep. Matt Gaetz, Donald Trump’s pick to become the next attorney general, a lawyer said Tuesday. Attorneys involved in a civil case brought by a Gaetz associate were notified this week that an unauthorized person accessed a file shared between lawyers that included unredacted depositions from a woman who has said Gaetz had sex with her when she was 17, and a second woman who says she saw the encounter, according to attorney Joel Leppard.” • Seems odd. Filing this here for reasons I assume are obvious, despite the lack of evidence.
Democrats en déshabillé
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: H5N1
“Bird flu in Canada may have mutated to become more transmissible to humans” [Guardian]. “The teenager hospitalized with bird flu in British Columbia, Canada, may have a variation of the virus that has a mutation making it more transmissible among people, early data shows – a warning of what the virus can do that is especially worrisome in countries such as the US where some H5N1 cases are not being detected…. Preliminary sequencing of the H5N1 variant sickening the teenager showed a potential mutation on the genomic spot known to make people more susceptible to the virus. That could indicate that H5N1 has the capability to become more like a human virus, rather than an avian virus, but it is also not clear yet whether this change is meaningful and more dangerous to people, experts said. Canadian officials have been conducting blood tests among the teen’s contacts, and they expect results later this week. They are also awaiting the results of other tests done over the weekend.” • Meanwhile in California:
⚠️Worried—This is at least the 3rd COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION incidence of H5N1 without any animal contact. Same with the ICU hospitalized case. This is either human-to-human, or maybe long distance airborne transmission from animal to human somehow without direct contact. Worrisome. https://t.co/a0PDCQQrjj
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 19, 2024
Well, it’s not like vulnerable people congregate in hospitals:
NIH has resumed requiring masking in all patient care areas and testing for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, Influenza B, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) on inpatients. Sonoma County also requiring masking. But #HICPAC thinks masks are unnecessary. Make HICPAC make sense! pic.twitter.com/2xbQUBdAdC
— Judy Stone (@DrJudyStone) November 19, 2024
Elite Maleficence
“The World Is Watching the U.S. Deal With Bird Flu, and It’s Scary” [New York Times]. “Failure to control H5N1 among American livestock could have global consequences, and this demands urgent attention. The United States has done little to reassure the world that it has the outbreak contained…. [T]he United States should remember that the country where a pandemic emerges can be accused of not doing enough to control it. We still hear how China did not do enough to stop the Covid-19 pandemic. None of us would want a new pandemic labeled the ‘American virus,’ as this could be very damaging for the United States’ reputation and economy….I understand that it’s not easy to persuade businesses, such as the meat and dairy industries, to allow the testing of all of their animals and staffs, and to make that data public quickly. But I also know that in the end, doing so protects lives, lessens economic damage and creates a safer world. The world cannot afford to gamble with this virus, letting it spread in animals and hoping it never sparks a serious outbreak — or crossing our fingers that its effects won’t be serious in people. Time will tell. I hope we are not watching the start of a new pandemic unfold, with both the American and the international communities burying our heads in the sand rather than confronting potential danger.”
“Australian COVID inquiry promotes “let it rip,” denounces public health measures” [WSWS]. “The report of a government commissioned inquiry into Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was released on Tuesday…. The inquiry spanned a year. The report runs to 892 pages. It is, however, completely worthless from an analytical or scientific standpoint, adding nothing to an understanding of pandemics and public health in general, or the experience of COVID-19 in particular. Instead, the report is a crude promotion of the profit-driven “let it rip” policies that persist to this day. It is noteworthy only as yet another marker of the assault on public health and the rights of the population that this homicidal program has entailed…. In regards to lockdowns and other measures such as mask mandates, they complain: ‘Effectiveness was inferred from overall reported case numbers, but this is a very limited approach to evaluation and did not reveal which [restrictions] were effective and whether the stringency settings were right.’ Those unqualified assertions, denouncing measures that saved lives, are all the more striking, given that the report notes, ‘Australia would have had between 15 and 46 times the number of deaths if it had experienced the same COVID-related death rates as comparable countries like Canada and Sweden.’ That is, but for the measures that the report denounces, hundreds of thousands, or even more than a million people would have perished out of a population of 25 million.” • If those GBD psychos secure a lodgment in the Trump Administration, this is exactly what they will do, or try to do, here. And eugencist enables like Zients, Jha, Walensky, and Cohen will do everything they can to helkp them. Commentary:
Do we have any Australians in the readership who would like to share their views?
Some kinda death cult, or what?
More optimistic than I am. From the UK:
Could be something to this:
Yes, there are people who eat brunch. And there are
peopleentities who serve brunch.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC November 11 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC November 9 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 9 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data November 18: | National [6] CDC November 14: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens November 18: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 16: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC October 28: | Variants[10] CDC October 28: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Retail: “Walmart is feeling jolly as the holiday shopping season approaches” [Wall Street Journal Logistics Report]. “The nation’s largest retailer says U.S. comparable sales, those from stores and digital channels in operation for at least 12 months, rose a higher-than-expected 5.3% in the latest quarter. The WSJ’s Sarah Nassauer reports that the growth was propelled by shoppers buying groceries, home goods and toys, a sign that spending is off to a solid start heading into the busiest shopping season of the year. Walmart’s profit increased on lower e-commerce delivery costs, fewer discounts and higher revenue from advertising. The retailer said it cut its net delivery cost per order in the U.S. by about 40% in the quarter.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing to lay off roughly 2,200 Washington workers 5 days before Christmas” [FOX]. “The layoffs are part of the debt-heavy U.S. planemaker’s plan to cut 17,000 jobs, or 10% of its global workforce, according to a union official and federally required filings posted on Monday.” • That’ll teach ’em.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 49 Neutral (previous close: 50 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 65 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 20 at 11:09:45 AM ET.
Thanksgiving Pre-Game Festivities
“Record 80 million Americans expected to travel for Thanksgiving holiday, industry group says” [Reuters]. • We’ll see what the charts look like afterwards.
Healthcare
“Add 11 years to your life? Science says it’s as simple as a daily walk” {StudyFinds]. “In what might be the best return on investment since Bitcoin’s early days, scientists have discovered that every hour of walking could yield up to six hours of additional life. Unlike cryptocurrency, however, this investment is guaranteed by the laws of human biology. An exciting modeling study reveals that if every American over the age of 40 was as physically active as the most active quarter of the population, they could expect to live an extra five years on average…. Study authors analyzed data from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES), focusing on Americans aged 40 and older who wore activity monitors for at least four days. Unlike previous studies that relied on participants’ memory and honesty about their activity levels, these monitors provided objective measurements of every movement throughout the day. The results showed a striking ‘diminishing returns‘ effect in the relationship between physical activity and longevity. The greatest benefits were seen among the least active individuals: moving from the lowest activity quarter to the second-lowest required just 28.5 minutes of additional walking per day but could add 6.3 years to life expectancy. That means every hour of walking for this group translated to an extra 6.3 hours of life — an impressive return on investment. As people became more active, the additional benefits per hour of activity decreased but remained significant.” • Here is the study, which pleasingly confirms my priors. Perhaps some kind reader can take a look at the methodology.
Gallery
“What a carve up! Playful, intricate Japanese leaf art – in pictures” [Guardian]. “Almost every day for the past five years, the Kanagawa-born artist Lito has drawn an image on to a leaf – usually a jaunty scene from the animal world involving, say, a biker-dude rabbit or a frog in a phone box – and carved it out with a scalpel before posting a photograph to social media. A painstaking process, it nonetheless suits Lito’s “propensity to devote long hours to detailed work” – a diagnosis of ADHD aged 30 was what prompted him to quit his corporate job and start carving leaves for a living. And a living it is: he’s sold 300,000 copies of his leaf-art books to date and exhibits his work throughout Japan. The combination of playful Studio Ghibli-esque imagination and exhaustive attention to detail is central to the appeal.” • For example:
Class Warfare
“Trash,” eh?
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From expat2uruguay:
expat2uruguay writes: “I have this begonia leaf that I was going to try to propagate using a technique I’ve only read about. The technique calls for pinning down the injured parts of the leaf or perhaps covering them with rocks, so the use of metal jacks is my own innovation here.” Can readers comment on this technique?
Kind readers, the stock of plant pictures is still too scant for comfort… .
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