As Europe gets hotter, more people are expected to die from extreme heat, outweighing the reduction in those killed by very cold weather.
Cities in northern European regions such as the UK and Ireland and Scandinavia would see an overall reduction in deaths due to milder winters, according to a study published in the journal Nature Medicine on Monday. But this positive effect would be overwhelmingly eclipsed by the rising death toll further south. In total, it means a higher loss of life from extreme temperatures.
Researchers found that if planet-warming carbon emissions continue to rise, higher temperatures would result in some 2.3 million extra deaths by 2099 across 854 European cities. Cities in the Mediterranean region, including Barcelona, Rome, Naples and Madrid, would see the largest increase in deaths.
Hotter-than-usual summer weather in recent years has already led to a significant rise in deaths, particularly among older people, who are more vulnerable. Heat waves in Europe in 2003 were linked to more than 70,000 deaths. In the summer of 2022, record-breaking heat across the continent caused more than 60,000 deaths despite significant adaptation measures.
Temperatures tend to rise more in urban areas versus rural regions because buildings and paved streets absorb heat. Many European cities have insufficient shading and green space and inadequate air conditioning.
The findings are “compelling evidence” that a rise in heat-related deaths will outweigh any reduction in deaths due to cold weather, said Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the study and lead of the Environment and Health Modelling Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “These results debunk proposed theories of ‘beneficial’ effects of climate change,” he said.
The study is more detailed than previous research because it takes into account the aging populations and specific vulnerabilities of each city, said Tim Osborn, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, who was not involved in the report. “The clear finding of this new research is that the net effect of climate change will be more temperature-related deaths in future,” he said.
Even with significant adaptation measures designed to keep people cool, it would be very difficult to entirely cancel out the increase in health risks as temperatures rise, the study found. But cutting carbon emissions and limiting temperature rises to levels in line with the Paris Agreement’s goals would cut the death toll by two-thirds.
“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,” said Pierre Masselot, lead author and assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire.”
Photograph: Tourists in the shade at Obradoiro Square during high temperatures in Santiago de Compostela, Spain, on Saturday, Aug, 10, 2024. Photo credit: Brais Lorenzo/Bloomberg
Copyright 2025 Bloomberg.
Topics
Europe
Climate Change
Interested in Climate Change?
Get automatic alerts for this topic.
